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ACUS11 KWNS 261849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261849
COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-261945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Areas affected...eastern WY...far western NE Panhandle...CO Front
Range into east-central CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 261849Z - 261945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Isolated to scattered
strong/severe thunderstorms capable of large hail (1-2 inches in
diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) are possible with the
stronger thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite/radar imagery shows a couple of
thunderstorms over southeast WY with a building cumulus field over
the higher terrain of central and north-central CO. The airmass
over the central High Plains is characterized as relatively moist
with surface dewpoints in the middle-upper 50s degrees F and
temperatures are warming through the 70s. Objective analysis
indicates around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE has developed with only weak
convective inhibition remaining over the lower elevations.

The latest 88D VAD data from KCYS and KFTG show around 35-45 kt
northwesterly mid-level flow atop weak easterlies in the low levels.
The net result is around 40-50 kt effective shear which will support
updraft organization. Large hail and isolated severe gusts appear
to be the primary hazards but a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled
out given the moist environment over northeast CO and potential
storm-scale influences. It is within the southeast WY to
east-central CO area that potential severe thunderstorm coverage is
greatest and the corresponding probabilities are highest for a
severe thunderstorm watch.

Farther north over east-central WY, a couple of thunderstorms (lower
coverage than farther southeast) will probably develop near and west
of the Black Hills westward to the Big Horns. The stronger storms
may yield an isolated hail/wind risk given the combination of
sufficient instability and adequate shear for organized
thunderstorms.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 38180495 39970536 41780546 43470643 43980602 43960511
43180394 40860304 39740264 38740284 38120378 38180495



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