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ACUS11 KWNS 260659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260659
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-260900-
Mesoscale Discussion 1163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018
Areas affected...eastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire
and Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260659Z - 260900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated storm may remain capable of a brief/weak
tornado or damaging wind gust as it travels northeastward this
morning.
DISCUSSION...A small supercell has developed within a batch of
convective showers which is currently spreading northward, possibly
associated with an embedded disturbance in the southerly flow aloft.
The air mass is very moist but only weakly unstable, but area VWPs
do indicate effective SRH on the order of 100-150 m2/s2. This storm
is currently shallow and not producing lightning. However, radar
trends have shown periodic brief circulations capable of damage over
very small areas. Given a similar air mass farther north of the
area, this threat may persist as the subtle wave aloft continues
northward this morning. Given the very isolated nature of this
threat, a watch is unlikely.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/26/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...
LAT...LON 42037175 42267183 43367162 43827126 43917081 43757036
43447024 42917070 42497076 42307075 42047105 41947137
42037175
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