• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1163

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 26, 2018 06:59:42
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    ACUS11 KWNS 260659
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260659
    MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-260900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1163
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0159 AM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

    Areas affected...eastern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire
    and Maine

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 260659Z - 260900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated storm may remain capable of a brief/weak
    tornado or damaging wind gust as it travels northeastward this
    morning.

    DISCUSSION...A small supercell has developed within a batch of
    convective showers which is currently spreading northward, possibly
    associated with an embedded disturbance in the southerly flow aloft.
    The air mass is very moist but only weakly unstable, but area VWPs
    do indicate effective SRH on the order of 100-150 m2/s2. This storm
    is currently shallow and not producing lightning. However, radar
    trends have shown periodic brief circulations capable of damage over
    very small areas. Given a similar air mass farther north of the
    area, this threat may persist as the subtle wave aloft continues
    northward this morning. Given the very isolated nature of this
    threat, a watch is unlikely.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...

    LAT...LON 42037175 42267183 43367162 43827126 43917081 43757036
    43447024 42917070 42497076 42307075 42047105 41947137
    42037175



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