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ACUS11 KWNS 260340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260339
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into parts of the
western half of Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309...

Valid 260339Z - 260545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- including potential for hail and locally
damaging winds -- continues across portions of eastern Colorado and
into parts of the western half of Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a gradual increase in storm
coverage over the past 1-2 hours -- particularly over the
southwestern quarter of Kansas and surrounding areas, in response to
weak southerly low-level jet development. With adequate CAPE still
existing over parts of the region, an uptick in storm intensity has
also occurred. At this time, a few cells persist which likely
remain capable of producing large hail, while locally damaging winds
also remain possible.

With that said, substantial cooling of the boundary layer is
occurring -- even in areas away from convective outflow, which will
likely result in a gradual decrease in potential for strong winds to
penetrate to ground level. Additionally, with the increasingly
widespread nature of the storms resulting in substantial convective overturning, potential for hail should also diminish. For the next
couple of hours however, local severe risk is expected to persist as
storms continue to move south-southeastward across the southwest
Kansas vicinity. Weaker instability with southward extent into
Oklahoma appears likely to preclude any need for new watch issuance
south of WW 309.

..Goss.. 07/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 39340421 38820255 39310067 38659853 37609858 36979961
36930316 37740412 39070449 39340421



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