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ACUS11 KWNS 252047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252047
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Areas affected...southern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 252047Z - 252215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity through the evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Early day convection and widespread cloud cover have
resulted in an environment that is only modestly supportive of
organized severe thunderstorms. An additional negative factor is the
inferred descent in the wake of the early day showers and
thunderstorms that moved across the area. However, the airmass
continues to slowly improve -- especially across southern Minnesota
into southern Wisconsin -- which is on the southern fringe of the
thicker cloud cover. Here, temperatures have warmed into the 80s and
low 90s resulting in the best instability slightly better midlevel
lapse rates, and some downdraft CAPE.

As the airmass continues to recover, a southeast moving cold front
will move through the area. Convergence along the front will support thunderstorm development and a wind threat may develop given the
instability and strong shear in place. Additional thunderstorms may
develop ahead of the cold front within a zone of weak warm-air
advection around 700 millibars, posing at least a marginal hail
threat in addition to the aforementioned wind threat.

..Marsh/Hart.. 07/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 42959415 43199581 44339633 45069467 45589255 45659000
45048880 43448890 42979117 42959415



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