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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1155

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 25, 2018 18:48:38
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 251848
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251848
    COZ000-WYZ000-251945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1155
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

    Areas affected...southeast WY...CO Front Range

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 251848Z - 251945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify. The
    stronger storms will likely be capable of large hail (1-2 inches in
    diameter) and serve as the primary severe hazard. Isolated severe
    gusts (around 60 mph) are also possible.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar imagery shows developing
    thunderstorms over the CO Front Range northward into southeast WY.
    Subjective surface analysis indicates a boundary draped west-east
    near the AR River Valley with moist upslope flow over northeast CO
    with easterly low-level winds backing to northerly near the I-25
    corridor. Temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 80s
    before developing thunderstorms move east over the High Plains where
    moderate buoyancy currently exists (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).
    West-northwesterly flow increasing with height in the 600mb-200mb
    layer is contributing to a wind profile supportive of organized
    thunderstorms, including the possibility for a supercell. Recent convection-allowing model guidance suggests the area between Ft.
    Collins and the Palmer Divide may have a localized greater hail risk
    with a more intense thunderstorm (i.e., supercell). Large hail will
    likely be the main threat with these storms but localized severe
    gusts are possible.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 07/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 38890531 41510598 42070607 42140537 41740450 39200350
    38650405 38560466 38890531



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