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ACUS11 KWNS 250428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250428
NDZ000-250630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CDT Tue Jul 24 2018

Areas affected...ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250428Z - 250630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms will gradually expand
in areal coverage across central into southeast ND over the next
several hours. Marginally severe hail is the primary risk.

DISCUSSION...Deep-layer shear is increasing across ND ahead of a
short-wave trough that is digging southeast across SK toward the
northern Plains. Convection is gradually expanding across ND ahead
of this feature, primarily in an elevated fashion along/behind an
inverted surface trough/frontal surge. Forecast soundings suggest
updrafts are likely rooted above 850mb with cloud-bearing shear more
than adequate for sustaining organized updrafts. Latest MRMS data
suggests the strongest updrafts may produce marginally severe hail.
This activity is expected to spread across central into southeastern
ND over the next 2-4 hours. At this time it appears the magnitude of
severe threat will remain inadequate to warrant a watch.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 07/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48060035 46929751 46089766 46019949 46510179 47430208
48060035



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