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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1152

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 24, 2018 21:45:36
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242145
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242144
    SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-242345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1152
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0444 PM CDT Tue Jul 24 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...Far southwest South
    Dakota...Northern Colorado...and the Nebraska panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 242144Z - 242345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms have formed along the higher terrain of the Front
    Range and will continue to move east. Some of these storms may be
    strong to severe. The best potential for severe weather will be from
    east central Wyoming into western Nebraska.

    DISCUSSION...Several storms have developed in weak upslope flow
    along the Front Range. These storms will move into an increasingly
    unstable (MLCAPE around 2000 to 3000 J/kg) environment through the
    evening. Effective shear in eastern Wyoming is 45 to 55 knots per
    latest RAP mesoanalysis. Therefore, would expect the most persistent storms/best severe potential in east central Wyoming into far
    southwest South Dakota and into the Nebraska panhandle where this
    combination of instability and shear is maximized. The limited area
    of the greatest threat will likely preclude the need for a watch,
    but convective trends will be monitored for the next hour or two.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/24/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44580685 44780619 44830484 44690394 44180316 43630283
    42700281 41670280 40970287 39630333 39280374 39270450
    39390506 40560558 42580598 44580685



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