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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1151

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 24, 2018 20:31:36
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 242031
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242031
    COZ000-NMZ000-242300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1151
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 PM CDT Tue Jul 24 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 242031Z - 242300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are developing over the Southern Rockies and should
    move southeast off the higher terrain onto the High Plains later
    this afternoon/evening. Hail/wind are the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Strong daytime heating aided by upslope flow is
    destabilizing the atmosphere and helping produce slow-moving
    thunderstorms across the Southern Rockies. Marginal instability
    (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and higher DCAPE (1000+ J/kg) with steep
    low-level lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) indicate the potential for hail
    and strong wind gusts. Weak shear and capping should allow for
    multicellular development and with weak northwest steering flow
    aloft, storms should move slowly to the southeast off the higher
    terrain onto the High Plains of southeast Colorado/northeast New
    Mexico this afternoon/evening. There is some potential for upscale
    organization into one or two smaller convective system(s)/cluster(s)
    over the High Plains this evening. However, given the weak shear and
    marginal instability, a watch is unlikely.

    ..Nauslar/Hart.. 07/24/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35250574 35720564 36200536 36740531 37320529 38000545
    38380562 38860567 39170563 39220539 39270490 39240387
    39090355 38810337 38140317 37520298 36790306 35690333
    34980359 34630379 34710445 34900499 35150541 35250574



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