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ACUS11 KWNS 240005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240005
LAZ000-TXZ000-240130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Areas affected...Southwestern Louisiana and far southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240005Z - 240130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe storms are possible through
the evening. The primary threat from these storms will be large hail
and damaging winds. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Several storms have developed along a southwestward
moving cold front in southern Louisiana. MRMS MESH suggests hail may
be approaching severe size in several of these cells which are
forming in an environment characterized by MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg
per latest RAP mesoanalysis. Effective shear is not as strong with
westward extent, but shear of 30 to 40 knots should be sufficient
for updraft organization for the next few hours. Given the cumulus
field extending northwestward from this activity, and surface
convergence visible in surface observations into eastern Texas,
additional storm development is possible along the front possibly as
far west as Jasper County, TX. These storms will primarily be a hail
threat, however damaging winds are also possible.

..Bentley.. 07/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...

LAT...LON 29419128 29699127 30149188 30399235 30779309 31009367
31029417 30629424 30019406 29649392 29699351 29689323
29459252 29399181 29419128



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