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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1147

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 23, 2018 21:48:00
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 232147
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232147
    LAZ000-232315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1147
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0447 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 232147Z - 232315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible into the evening for
    far southeastern Louisiana. Large hail and damaging winds will be
    the primary threat. The best chance for storms will remain south of
    Interstate 10.

    DISCUSSION...An area of confluence has been the focus for strong to
    severe storms over the northern Gulf of Mexico through much of the
    afternoon. Additional northwestward development had led to a few of
    these strong storms now developing over land in LaFourche parish.
    Low-level confluence weakens considerably north of Interstate 10,
    but continued storm development is expected south of this area where
    MLCAPE is around 3000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates are around 7.5
    to 8 C/km per latest RAP mesoanalysis. Given the favorable
    thermodynamic environment and effective shear around 40 to 45 knots,
    any storms which develop could become severe with a threat of large
    hail and damaging winds. While storm severity could warrant a watch
    issuance, the limited land area impacted will likely preclude the
    need for a watch.

    ..Bentley.. 07/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 30559115 29979031 29588969 29348944 28998968 28829011
    28829065 29059116 29319149 29899174 30319185 30559115



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