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ACUS11 KWNS 240040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240039
GAZ000-240145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Areas affected...north-central and east-central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240039Z - 240145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of transient supercells are possible for the next
1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar data over the past couple of hours has shown a
couple of storms intermittently showing weak rotation (i.e., weak
supercells). A sharp gradient in buoyancy is evident per the 00Z
Atlanta and Charleston, SC RAOBs with around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE to 100
J/kg, respectively along the warm frontal zone. Conversely, much
stronger low-level shear was evident at Charleston but considerably
weaker at KCLX VAD and the Atlanta RAOB. The overlapping area in
between Charleston and Atlanta is also where the storms have been
most prone to exhibit weak cyclonic rotation (also with sidelobe
contaminated velocities). The expectation for the next few hours is
the possibility for an isolated gust may continue but diminishing boundary-layer instability will likely lead to a lowering
strong/severe risk.

..Smith/Thompson.. 04/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON 32088224 32998369 33198407 33638401 33578317 33188239
32718169 32088224



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ACUS11 KWNS 081347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081346
FLZ000-ALZ000-081545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

Areas affected...Western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 081346Z - 081545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convective line will likely begin impacting the western FL
Panhandle around 15Z. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and lightning data show a
well-developed convective line off the coast of the far western FL
Panhandle. Current storm motion is estimated as 230 degrees at 25 kt
for the northern potion of the line, with a slightly faster storm
motion (30-35 kt) noted with the more southerly portion. This motion
will bring the line to the coast around 15Z.

Air mass ahead of the line, which is characterized by temperatures
in the upper 60s/low 70s, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and weak
instability, does not currently appear overly favorable for
persistence and/or intensification. 12Z TLH sounding does show
moderately steep lapse rates between 800 and 600 mb but stable
low-levels indicate an atmosphere generally hostile to strong
convection. Given the time of day and lack of large-scale forcing
for ascent, it seems unlikely that destabilization will occur before
the line impacts the coast. That being said, the well-organized
character of the convective line bears watching and trends will be
monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 04/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30628735 31048644 30708527 30008479 29488535 29448661
30628735



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