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ACUS11 KWNS 231900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231900
COZ000-232030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231900Z - 232030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop across parts of central and
eastern Colorado this afternoon. Isolated large hail and wind damage
will be possible. Weather watch issuance may be needed for parts of
the region.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are starting to develop across
the mountains of central and northern Colorado. This convection is
located along the western edge of a pocket of moderate instability
where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP.
In addition, WSR-88D VWPs along the front range including Denver
show 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 kt. This combined with steep mid-level
lapse rates should be sufficient for storm rotation with isolated
large hail possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates will also aid
downdraft acceleration making damaging wind gusts possible as well.

..Broyles/Hart.. 07/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...

LAT...LON 40930546 40520616 39640656 38890654 37920617 37450571
37210500 37350422 38390359 40620414 40930546



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