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ACUS11 KWNS 231838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231838
LAZ000-232015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231838Z - 232015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms should slowly build northwestward
across far southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and some of these
storms may become capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds.
The coverage/magnitude of any such threat remains highly uncertain,
though, such that watch issuance appears somewhat unlikely at
present.

DISCUSSION...A northwest/southeast-oriented line of strong
convection has remained almost stationary near/just offshore the
mouth of the Mississippi River this afternoon, given individual cell
advection to the southeast and upstream propagation to the
northwest. This evolution has kept stronger activity generally
offshore through early afternoon, although recent radar trends
indicate slightly more development over Plaquemines Parish. Further
upstream heating within an exceedingly moist pre-frontal environment
(e.g., surface dew points approaching 80F) should further this trend
of more upstream development, aided by low-level confluence from the
surface through approximately 850 mb.

A conditional environment favorable for large hail and damaging
winds exists over southeast Louisiana, considering plentiful
mixed-layer CAPE and anomalously strong mid-level northwesterlies.
However, the relatively confined nature of any potential threat
(largely owing to the narrow genesis zone / forcing for convection)
casts considerable doubt on the possibility of watch issuance.
Nonetheless, an uptick in the expected inland coverage would
increase the probability of issuance.

..Picca/Hart.. 07/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29088903 29179047 29649146 30099157 30409122 30249047
29868936 29488881 29188879 29088903



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