• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1143

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 23, 2018 17:25:00
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231724
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231724
    NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-232000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1143
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...South Carolina...North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 231724Z - 232000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage and hail threat will continue
    across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. Weather watch issuance
    is not expected because the severe threat should remain marginal.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are currently developing in
    central South Carolina and in central North Carolina. The storms are
    located along a corridor of moderate instability where the RAP is
    estimating MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In
    addition, 0-3 km lapse rates have steepened considerably in the last
    hour. Although deep-layer shear is generally below 25 kt across most
    of the Carolinas according to regional WSR-88D VWPs, the instability
    and steepening low-level lapse rates will make conditions supportive
    of marginally severe wind gusts. A few of the stronger cells could
    also produce hail.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 07/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 32478114 32868010 33697890 34457807 35297801 36047814
    36487855 36627928 36368003 36018059 35638109 34788219
    33898271 33048230 32478114



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