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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0286

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 23, 2018 20:00:34
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232000
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231959
    SCZ000-GAZ000-232100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0286
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Georgia and far
    southern South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 231959Z - 232100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may be capable of locally damaging
    winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado through
    this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Given considerable insolation and boundary-layer
    moistening, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
    gradually developed over parts of Georgia this afternoon. These
    cells have organized within confluent bands extending southwest of a
    warm front, where the air mass is characterized by MLCAPE values
    upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg. Although mid-level lapse rates are not
    particularly steep, effective shear around 35-45 kt may yield
    marginally severe hail in the strongest cores. Pockets of dry
    mid-level air and steepening 0-3km lapse rates could favor localized
    damaging wind gusts into the early evening as well. Lastly, weak
    background low-level winds (and related storm-relative helicity)
    should limit the tornado threat; however, locally backed surface
    flow near the warm front could focus a small corridor of brief
    tornado potential into this evening.

    ..Picca/Hart.. 04/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 32698447 33198448 33438442 33678423 33788387 33808308
    33618202 32898066 32558036 32438051 32358058 31298141
    31358214 31748371 32298444 32698447



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 08, 2019 10:22:09
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 081022
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081021
    ALZ000-081115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0286
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0521 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

    Areas affected...A small part of northeastern AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 081021Z - 081115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...There will be a small window of opportunity for a brief
    tornado through about 12-13z.

    DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has evolved from convection along
    the trailing lobe of ascent related to an MCV from overnight
    convection (now near the northwest AL/TN border). A corridor of
    somewhat richer low-level moisture remains in tact this morning (mid
    60s dewpoints across central AL), which is contributing to at least
    weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). Low-level
    and deep-layer vertical shear are sufficient for supercells along
    the southeast flank of the MCV, which will move northeastward this
    morning. There will be a small window of opportunity for a brief
    tornado with the supercell (or new development) where the stronger
    vertical shear coincides with the north edge of the weakly unstable
    surface warm sector. Given the small area and somewhat marginal
    nature of the threat, a watch is not anticipated.

    ..Thompson.. 04/08/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 33978581 33818623 33778682 34008692 34318679 34548659
    34698623 34458581 33978581



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