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ACUS11 KWNS 222211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222211
NEZ000-SDZ000-222345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Areas affected...Western NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222211Z - 222345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and gusty winds may accompany storms that form
across western NE this evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating appears to be the primary contributing
factor in recent convective development across western NE.
Surface-2km lapse rates are approaching dry adiabatic ahead of the
front from Cherry County into northeast CO. It appears frontal
forcing will be more than adequate for continued updraft development/intensification despite the lack of meaningful
large-scale ascent at this latitude. CAMs support a gradual upward
evolving corridor of storms along the front this evening within a
sheared regime supportive of weak supercells. For these reasons
there is some concern a watch may be warranted as hail/wind could
accompany this activity.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 07/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 41100195 42310136 43090051 42729977 40740107 41100195



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