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ACUS11 KWNS 221612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221612
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-221815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Areas affected...Eastern VA...Northeast NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221612Z - 221815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over eastern VA and
northeast NC this afternoon, with a few strong/severe storms
possible. A watch is currently unlikely, but trends will be closely
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor loop shows multiple upper level shortwave
troughs rotating around an upper low centered over OH, affecting the Mid-Atlantic region. The latest surface analysis shows a
north-south oriented boundary extending from eastern VA into
northeast NC and a marine warm front lifting northward across
eastern NC. Weak surface convergence along these boundaries and
lift associated with the mid-level impulses are expected to result
in scattered thunderstorm development in the next 1-3 hours.
Portions of this area were affected by clouds/precipitation earlier
this morning, but rapid clearing/heating has ensued with MLCAPE
values climbing to around 1500 J/kg range. Vertical shear is also
reasonably strong with effective shear values of 30-35 knots and
0-3km helicity values of 100-200 m2/s2. These parameters suggest
some potential for organized/rotating cells capable of locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado this afternoon. Mid level
lapse rates are weak, and the threat area is rather small.
Therefore the need for a watch is uncertain. However, we will
closely monitor trends for a more robust severe threat through the
day.

..Hart/Dial.. 07/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON 35827687 35517787 36107826 37757780 38767692 39007635
38047618 37127639 35827687



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