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ACUS11 KWNS 221433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221432
FLZ000-GAZ000-221530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Areas affected...North Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 221432Z - 221530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across
northern Florida through the afternoon. The stronger cells will
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. A watch will
likely be issued soon for this region.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery show a few thunderstorms
are beginning to organize over Clay/Putnam counties of northeast FL,
with TCU and showers farther west into Marion/Levy counties. This
activity is forming along a subtle low-level wind shift and
convergence axis spreading southeastward across the area. Strong
heating in vicinity of the boundary, coupled with dewpoints in the
upper 70s is yielding a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values
over 4000 J/kg. Increasing northwesterly mid-level winds will
result in effective shear values of 25-30 knots, sufficient for
organized multicell and occasional rotating storms capable of
damaging wind gusts and some hail.

West of the wind shift line across the eastern FL Panhandle, the CU
field is increasing and the air mass remains very unstable.
Although convergence is weak in this area, the potential for rapid
storm development is present. The watch may reach into this area as
well to account for convective initiation a few hours from now.

..Hart/Dial.. 07/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29398336 29928445 30638476 30608282 30498162 29608104
28418076 28238241 29398336



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