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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1128

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 22, 2018 03:30:24
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 220330
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220329
    FLZ000-ALZ000-220530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1128
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1029 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

    Areas affected...Southern AL to western FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 220329Z - 220530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms should gradually increase in coverage/intensity
    late this evening into the overnight across southern AL and possibly
    into the western FL Panhandle. While uncertainty exists regarding
    the overall extent and magnitude of this late-night severe risk,
    trends are being monitored for a possible Watch.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently increased across southwest
    AL late this evening as of around 320Z. While overall forcing for
    ascent is relatively subtle, factors such as weak height falls and a
    warm conveyor/elevated moisture transport should contribute to
    increasing storms over the next couple of hours. This notion is well
    supported by recent HRRR runs and various 00Z-based
    convection-allowing models. The environment is conducive for at
    least isolated severe storms including a couple of supercells in the
    presence of moderate instability and around 40 kt of effective
    shear. Large hail and locally damaging winds will be possible with
    the strongest storms. Developmental trends are being monitored for a
    possible Watch.

    ..Guyer.. 07/22/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31518801 31998725 31638568 30828558 30878724 31518801



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