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ACUS11 KWNS 200237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200236
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-200330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Missouri and western Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286...

Valid 200236Z - 200330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms continues along and
near the Mississippi River. These storms will continue to pose a
threat of large hail and damaging winds into the overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Storms along and east of the Mississippi River have
remained somewhat discreet this evening. This lack of
clustering/cold-pool development has likely limited a greater wind
threat from these storms, however, forcing from the upper trough
combined with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 40
knots will support these storms continuing for at least a few more
hours. 0.5 degree base reflectivity from KLSX now shows an outflow
boundary extending from the lead supercell in eastern Pike County,
IL towards the west into Pike County, MO. As long as the lead storm
can stay rooted along or ahead of this boundary, it will likely
maintain its strength and continue southeastward. If this storm can
maintain its intensity, it would arrive in the eastern portion of
the St. Louis metro around 11 PM with damaging winds and large hail
as the primary threat. While the westernmost storm is less likely to
maintain intensity due to its placement behind the leading outflow
boundary, it has a better likelihood of impacting the St. Louis
metro area if it can sustain itself for another hour or two.

..Bentley.. 07/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON 40749144 40719079 40709033 40538986 40288928 39828875
39448849 38888854 38358867 38408938 38438972 38719033
38879101 38969132 39319165 39699211 40239234 40639230
40749144



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