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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1091

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 19, 2018 23:27:15
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 192327
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192326
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-200030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1091
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0626 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast Missouri into western and central
    Illinois.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 192326Z - 200030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms in southeast Iowa are expected to grow upscale
    through the evening with an increasing wind damage threat. A
    downstream severe thunderstorm watch is likely within the hour.

    DISCUSSION...Latest HRRR guidance suggests the storms in southeast
    Iowa may continue to grow upscale through the evening. Effective
    shear of 40 to 45 knots per the latest RAP mesoanalysis and MUCAPE
    of 2000 to 2500 J/kg supports continued growth of these existing
    storms. If a strong enough cold-pool develops, a MCS may develop and
    persist through much of the overnight period. Wind damage will be
    the primary threat as these storms organize into a more linear mode.
    Once these storms congeal into a linear segment, the tornado risk
    will likely decrease as low-level shear vectors will be oriented
    mostly parallel to any linear development. Some hail is possible,
    but modest mid-level lapse rates (6 to 6.5 C/km) will preclude a
    greater hail threat. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
    needed within the hour to cover the damaging wind threat into the
    overnight period.

    ..Bentley.. 07/19/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 39959203 40189218 40329190 40509155 41209147 41139060
    41048970 40738897 40488857 40208831 39808813 39438822
    39068849 38918899 38858986 38869043 38939079 39049119
    39249150 39959203



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