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ACUS11 KWNS 192243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192242
OKZ000-KSZ000-200115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...much of southwest Kansas into far northwest
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192242Z - 200115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms are possible through early evening from
southwest KS into northwest OK. Hail and severe wind gusts may
occur.

DISCUSSION...A hot and unstable air mass is in place over the area,
with indication of storms initiating across southwest KS. Surface
convergence in this area will remain sufficient to support
development for a few hours prior to capping becoming a concern.
However, once storms form, good deep-layer shear may allow isolated
cells to persist, possibly into northwestern OK by evening. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible. A watch could be
considered if it becomes likely that severe coverage will be more
than isolated.

..Jewell/Goss.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON 36459964 36620003 37110081 37520126 37960132 38470103
38690057 38580006 38259938 37379843 36929802 36489791
36219788 36069813 36009846 36279921 36459964



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