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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1088

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 19, 2018 20:44:12
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192043
    NDZ000-SDZ000-192245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1088
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

    Areas affected...Central North Dakota...north-central South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 192043Z - 192245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon and
    early evening. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts and large hail
    are possible. A WW is not anticipated, but convective trends will be
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...An approaching shortwave trough will foster development
    of scattered strong to severe storms across the discussion area.
    With 30 kts of of mid-level flow, per KBIS VAD profile, and
    relatively cold temperatures aloft with a mid-level thermal trough,
    multicell storms should be capable of isolated instances of severe
    wind gusts and perhaps some large hail. With the loss of daytime
    heating and upstream mid-level ridging increasing during the
    evening, activity should wane after a few hours. The overall spatial
    extent of the threat is expected to remain isolated. A WW is not
    expected, however, convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/19/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 48130196 48630142 48790045 48709911 48379833 47659856
    46989916 46129954 45409961 44970009 44830119 45080219
    45400260 45720259 46170259 48130196



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