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ACUS11 KWNS 191916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191915
MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-192115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...

Valid 191915Z - 192115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
continues.

SUMMARY...A small bowing thunderstorm cluster will reach the eastern
edge of Watch 283 within the next hour or so, as it moves towards
southeast Missouri. Additionally, other strong/severe storms may
form to its west and gradually develop into northern Arkansas
through this evening. These trends are being monitored for possible
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing thunderstorm complex is progressing
east/southeast around 30-35 kt over south-central Missouri this
afternoon. At its current rate, it will approach the eastern edge of
Watch 283 around 20-21Z. The downstream boundary-layer environment
is characterized by ample theta-e and steep low-level lapse rates.
However, both mid-level flow and lapse rates become weaker with
eastward extent, casting uncertainty upon a more widespread severe
threat east of the current watch. As such, at its present state,
downstream watch issuance towards the Mississippi Valley appears
quite uncertain.

A secondary zone of potential convective development may offer a
greater, although still uncertain, severe threat over far southern
Missouri into northern Arkansas through this evening. Visible
satellite displays towering cumulus along an outflow boundary
extending westward from the aforementioned system. Ahead of this
boundary, rich boundary-layer moisture, ample heating, and more
robust mid-level kinematic/thermodynamic conditions are yielding a
higher conditional threat. Deeper convection along this boundary
would likely become severe and move east/southeastward, with the
threat eventually encroaching upon northern Arkansas. Such an
evolution would require new watch issuance, as cells would be
capable of damaging winds and large hail.

..Picca.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 37969257 37909017 36988946 36258966 35699059 35389146
35649279 36379353 37379379 37709361 37969257



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