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ACUS11 KWNS 191637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191637
KSZ000-MOZ000-191830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern/eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191637Z - 191830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms over northern Kansas may
gradually spread east/southeastward through this afternoon. Some of
these storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. A
watch could be needed within the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has formed within a field of
ACCAS over north-central Kansas late this morning. This convective
development suggests that subtle forcing for ascent within
northwesterly flow is beginning to advance across northern Kansas.
As it does so, isolated to scattered convective initiation is
possible farther east along a surface theta-e ridge/confluence axis
extending towards the Missouri Valley. Adjusting the 12Z TOP
sounding for current conditions suggests strong buoyancy (e.g.,
MLCAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg) is already present. In turn, robust
updraft accelerations and strong thunderstorm cores will remain
possible.

Relatively straight hodographs (somewhat parallel to the corridor of
initiation as well) suggest clusters of splitting cells will be the
preferred mode. The steep lapse rate environment and hot boundary
layer will be favorable for strong cold pool generation, and this
may encourage a few bowing segments that advance east/southeast
within the northwesterly flow environment. As such, damaging winds
will be the primary threat, although embedded supercell structures
will yield the potential for large hail as well.

Due to the subtle nature of large-scale ascent, there is some
uncertainty in the timing/coverage of downstream convection.
However, the severe threat appears to be increasing sufficiently
such that a watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours.

..Picca/Guyer.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39359975 39739983 39939959 39939716 39869656 39689541
39429493 38889461 38219471 37919480 37449564 37509629
38079729 38539880 39359975



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