This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1532012359-1941-483
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 191459
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191458
MOZ000-KSZ000-191700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191458Z - 191700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of isolated
severe gusts and large hail this morning. Through early afternoon,
this threat may further increase, possibly warranting watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite data depict two distinct
clusters of thunderstorm activity this morning over northern
Missouri. Both appear to be aided by large-scale ascent along the
southern fringe of a 500mb vorticity max near the mid Missouri
Valley. Additionally, KEAX VWP data illustrate veering flow with
height from the surface through approximately 3-4 km AGL, suggesting
modest warm advection is also assisting convective growth.

Low-level stratus across parts of the state is slowing
destabilization this morning, with current surface temperatures in
the 70s to lower 80s. In turn, a rapid increase in severe potential
is not currently anticipated. However, with further dissipation of
these clouds and enhanced insolation, an increasingly unstable
boundary layer should combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to
promote fairly robust MLCAPE by afternoon across western/southern
Missouri. If storm propagation can maintain some western component
into this buoyancy corridor through the afternoon, a greater severe
threat may be realized, with a mixture of supercells and bowing
clusters possible, given considerable mid/upper northwesterlies.
These cells would likely be capable of large hail, damaging winds,
and perhaps a tornado.

While this potential (and related watch issuance) does not appear
imminent, it may materialize by early/mid afternoon. Regardless, if
trends warrant, a watch could be issued sooner.

..Picca/Guyer.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 37219402 36879315 36869210 36919162 37389158 38779176
39759227 39909278 40249378 40399427 40319473 40069485
38329447 37539430 37219402



------------=_1532012359-1941-483
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1532012359-1941-483--

--- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)