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ACUS11 KWNS 211850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211850
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-212115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...Northeast Colorado...Western
Nebraska...and Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 211850Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are beginning to develop over the higher terrain
and along a surface boundary across southeast Wyoming into
north-central Colorado. Severe hail/wind are possible this afternoon
as these storms mature and move eastward.

DISCUSSION...Storms should continue developing this afternoon across
eastern Wyoming/northeast Colorado as strong daytime heating,
enhanced surface convergence, and upslope flow act to destabilize
lower-levels and break the cap. As storms move eastward, MLCAPE of
500-2000+ J/kg should support deep convection although shear is
relatively weak across the discussion area (effective bulk shear of
20-35 knots). However, low-level shear is likely to increase with
surface pressure falls helping to increase surface convergence and
strengthen southeasterly flow. This may allow for stronger storms to
develop and enhance the severe threat. Steep low-level lapse rates
(9+ C/km) and high LCLs indicate the potential for severe wind and
RAP soundings and mesoanalysis show 1200+ J/kg of DCAPE further
supporting this risk. Severe hail is also possible, especially
farther to the east/north across the discussion area as CAPE/shear
increases.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 07/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 40220529 41440537 42610566 43280593 43900616 44190491
44050373 43110275 42960271 42560261 41670254 40930250
40560259 40260318 40090391 40040526 40220529



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