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ACUS11 KWNS 211754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211753
NDZ000-MTZ000-212030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Montana and Northwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 211753Z - 212030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing across portions of northeast
Montana. A couple of discrete supercells resulting in severe
hail/wind and a tornado are possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing in northeast Montana in the
vicinity of enhanced surface convergence along a surface pressure
trough stretching from south-central Saskatchewan southward through
Glasgow and Miles City into northeast Wyoming. An upper-level
shortwave is approaching the area and should help provide ascent
aloft this afternoon/evening. Storms will develop in a favorable
environment characterized by MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg and effective
bulk shear of 35-45 knots. As daytime heating continues and the
shortwave moves overhead, surface pressure falls should enhance
surface convergence helping to initiate storms and increase
low-level shear. RAP soundings depict favorable hodograph-curvature
with effective SRH of 250+ m2/s2 late this afternoon. Discrete
supercellular development is likely for at least one of the storms
given the low-level shear and storm motions.

Hail/strong wind gusts are likely and a tornado is possible if a
supercell can develop somewhere from northeast Montana into western
North Dakota. A watch is possible, but the coverage of storms is
uncertain at this point, and there's a relatively narrow corridor of
favorable CAPE/shear across the northern Great Plains.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 07/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 49090441 49000350 48030340 47570348 47470397 47470470
47580602 47590665 47790728 48610739 48960725 49120587
49090441



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