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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1118

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 21, 2018 14:31:19
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 211431
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211430
    GAZ000-FLZ000-211600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1118
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0930 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

    Areas affected...southern Georgia and northern Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 211430Z - 211600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may continue developing south next few hours with a
    risk for locally strong to damaging wind gusts. A severe
    thunderstorm watch is being considered for southern Georgia into a
    portion of northern Florida.

    DISCUSSION...This morning a line of strong storms is moving through
    south central GA at around 35 kt. The line remains semi-organized
    with an embedded MCV along its eastern flank as well as an embedded
    northerly 50 kt rear inflow jet between 2-3 km based on VWP data.
    The downstream atmosphere is destabilizing with clearing skies and
    strong warming of the moist boundary layer contributing to 2000-2500
    J/kg MLCAPE. The 12Z RAOB from Tallahassee indicated an inversion
    around 750 mb which could potentially be a limiting factor. However,
    given the deep convergence implied by the rear inflow jet and strong
    boundary layer destabilization, it appears likely that storms will
    continue developing south next few hours with potential for some intensification and a threat for isolated wind damage.

    ..Dial/Hart.. 07/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31548450 31548365 31688262 31128214 30498237 30178366
    30328478 31278498 31548450



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