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ACUS11 KWNS 210936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210935
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-211130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Areas affected...Middle and southeast TN...northeast and extreme
eastern AL...and northern and central GA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...

Valid 210935Z - 211130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
continues.

SUMMARY...Occasional damaging wind and isolated large hail remain severe-weather threats across mainly northern into central Georgia,
and northeast to eastern Alabama. The overall severe-weather threat
across the Tennessee portion of WW 297 is diminishing, with any
remaining severe events being sporadic in the short term across
middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...At 09Z, objective analyses indicated the reservoir of
very strong instability (MUCAPE exceeding 3500 J/kg) extended from
middle TN to central AL. 25-30-kt westerly low-level winds per area
WSR-88D VWP data continue to provide a feed of this instability into
the backbuilding MCS across northern GA into parts of middle TN.
The southern extent of the MCS in GA and perhaps into part of AL
should remain the most active, as the westward-moving convective
outflow farther north across middle TN has become more displaced
from the existing updrafts. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
instability and the presence of strong effective bulk shear will
continue to support the potential for both strong/damaging winds and
large hail south of the TN border. Although surface-based
inhibition is stronger across portions of central and east-central
GA, strong, elevated storms will be capable of producing large hail
into the southeast portion of WW 297.

..Peters.. 07/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 32868252 32408541 33618609 34688674 35538682 36408646
36158520 35268515 34988466 34828370 34338336 33978291
32868252



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