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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1110

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 21, 2018 02:27:17
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 210227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210226
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1110
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0926 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

    Areas affected...Southern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma...far
    southwest Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 210226Z - 210400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Several strong to severe storms are possible early
    tonight. Large hail will be the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...The last hour of GOES-16 10.35u satellite imagery shows
    expanding mid-level clouds across much of southern Kansas in an area
    of moist isentropic ascent. Expect several elevated storms to form
    in this area over the next hour or two. With MUCAPE of 3000 to 4000
    J/kg and 50 to 60 knots of effective shear per DDC 00Z sounding and
    latest RAP mesoanalysis, expect these storms to be supercellular.
    Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5 C/km per 00Z DDC sounding)
    will support a primary threat of large hail. Any storms which form
    in this area will likely only last for a few hours as 700mb flow
    veers and isentropic lift weakens. The duration of these storms may
    limit the need for a watch, but if enough storms form, a watch may
    be necessary.

    ..Bentley/Goss.. 07/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38070094 38150024 38229894 38189796 38119652 38029547
    37839491 37269397 36859386 36239374 36099402 36109452
    36709541 37069678 37089775 37099870 37129961 37340042
    37770098 38070094



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