1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1107

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 20, 2018 22:37:50
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1532126271-1941-1526
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 202237
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202237
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-202330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1107
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0537 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

    Areas affected...Southeastern Indiana...northern Kentucky...and
    southwest Ohio.

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 289...

    Valid 202237Z - 202330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 289 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue across tornado watch 285 with
    all severe hazards still possible. The strongest storms are most
    likely in the southern half of the watch.

    DISCUSSION...Additional storms continue to fire on the western edge
    of ongoing activity across eastern Indiana and central Kentucky.
    Solar insolation and low-level moist advection has continued to
    destabilize this area with MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. The 21Z KLVX
    VWP shows effective shear around 35 to 40 knots with slightly higher
    effective shear further south in Kentucky per RAP mesoanalysis. This combination of CAPE and shear will continue to support supercell
    structures, especially across Kentucky. Mid-level lapse rates of 8.2
    C/km per 21Z BNA sounding combined with the aforementioned shear and
    buoyancy will continue to support large hail, possibly significant
    through the evening hours. While 1 km flow remains around 30 knots
    per KLVX VWP, flow is significantly weaker (~15 kts) at KHPX.
    However, storm mode and some low-level shear will continue to
    support at least some tornado threat even though the stronger storms
    have now shifted south of this stronger low-level jet and surface
    winds have veered. Will need to continue to monitor the low-level
    winds across this area as models indicate some strengthening of the
    low-level flow later this evening which could lead to a renewed
    greater tornado threat.

    Further north and east, the severe threat has lessened as several
    rounds of storms have stabilized the airmass. Continued storm
    development to the west will provide little opportunity for any
    additional destabilization.

    ..Bentley.. 07/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

    LAT...LON 36638708 36608628 36648552 36638503 36718478 37268446
    37608428 38188398 38608373 39098350 39478345 39788344
    39958412 40048488 40018536 39778615 38208678 36638734
    36638708



    ------------=_1532126271-1941-1526
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1532126271-1941-1526--

    --- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)