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ACUS11 KWNS 202216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202215
KSZ000-COZ000-210045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...east-central Colorado into central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202215Z - 210045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some possibly severe with hail and wind,
are expected by early evening across parts of eastern Colorado
eastward into Kansas.

DISCUSSION...A hot air mass has developed near a surface trough
extending from southeast CO into southwest KS, with backed surface
winds maintaining relative moisture and instability north of the
wind shift across much of KS and eastern CO. Capping has been
removed across southeast CO where a band of weak convection
currently exists, but additional activity is expected farther east
into KS where instability is stronger, and where a ribbon of
low-level warm advection exits. Conditions will favor a few
left-moving cells capable of hail and gusty outflow winds. However,
expected isolated coverage may not necessitate a watch.

..Jewell/Goss.. 07/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37059810 37269943 37520095 37750265 37820316 38250348
38840342 39200298 39180169 38970034 38829945 38599876
38279818 37929780 37489756 37279754 37059810



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