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ACUS11 KWNS 202047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202046
ARZ000-MOZ000-202145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...South-central MO...North-central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 202046Z - 202145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage anticipated with the
threat for damaging wind gust and large hail. A watch will likely be
needed to cover this potential threat.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level ACCAS attendant to the speed max moving
southeastward through the middle MO Valley has recently overspread
the warm and unstable airmass across southern MO. Mesoanalysis
suggests this area is still capped but increased forced for ascent
will likely provide the impetus needed for convective initiation.
Recent lightning strike in Wright County verifies this potential.
Additional storm development is possible across this region with
storms then tracking northeastward into north-central AR. Given the
strong instability and favorable vertical, severe storms are
anticipated. Primary threat will be damaging wind gusts but large
hail is also possible.

..Mosier/Hart.. 07/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 37099317 37379233 37239097 36209076 35759265 36389356
37099317



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