• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1103

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 20, 2018 19:39:17
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1532115565-1941-1357
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 201939
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201938
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-202045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1103
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0238 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

    Areas affected...Far Southeast IN...Far Southwest
    OH...Central/Eastern KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289...

    Valid 201938Z - 202045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards continues across Tornado
    Watch 289. Convective trends will be monitored for a potential
    downstream watch across portions of eastern KY.

    DISCUSSION...Initial clustered supercells mode appears to have
    transitioned to more of a amalgamated convective line along the
    southwestern border of OH and vicinity. Initial motion of the line southeastward at about 30-35 kt. Downstream airmass has been
    modified by previous storm outflow and the resulting cooler
    continues have limited instability. As a result, storm persistence
    into this airmass appears unlikely and the general expectation is
    for the primary propagation to favor the southwestern portion of the
    line into more of central KY. Remnant outflow boundary may also act
    a preferred conduit for storm propagation. Primary severe threat
    with this line is damaging wind gusts, although hail and a brief
    tornado are also possible.

    Farther south (across central KY), clustered storm mode continues
    with several supercells ongoing. Merger with convective line farther
    north appear probable and may already be underway. Hail, damaging
    wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes remain possible with this
    activity as well.

    Convective trends will be monitored for a potential downstream watch
    across portions of eastern KY.

    ..Mosier.. 07/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

    LAT...LON 38638642 39618533 39818426 39518362 38448309 36988354
    36748484 37108609 37788665 38638642



    ------------=_1532115565-1941-1357
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1532115565-1941-1357--

    --- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 20, 2018 19:44:19
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1532115862-1941-1365
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 201944
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201943 COR
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-202045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1103
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

    Areas affected...Far Southeast IN...Far Southwest
    OH...Central/Eastern KY

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 289...

    Valid 201943Z - 202045Z

    CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT WATCH TYPE.

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 289 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards continues across Tornado
    Watch 289. Convective trends will be monitored for a potential
    downstream watch across portions of eastern KY.

    DISCUSSION...Initial clustered supercells mode appears to have
    transitioned to more of a amalgamated convective line along the
    southwestern border of OH and vicinity. Initial motion of the line southeastward at about 30-35 kt. Downstream airmass has been
    modified by previous storm outflow and the resulting cooler
    continues have limited instability. As a result, storm persistence
    into this airmass appears unlikely and the general expectation is
    for the primary propagation to favor the southwestern portion of the
    line into more of central KY. Remnant outflow boundary may also act
    a preferred conduit for storm propagation. Primary severe threat
    with this line is damaging wind gusts, although hail and a brief
    tornado are also possible.

    Farther south (across central KY), clustered storm mode continues
    with several supercells ongoing. Merger with convective line farther
    north appear probable and may already be underway. Hail, damaging
    wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes remain possible with this
    activity as well.

    Convective trends will be monitored for a potential downstream watch
    across portions of eastern KY.

    ..Mosier.. 07/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

    LAT...LON 38638642 39618533 39818426 39518362 38448309 36988354
    36748484 37108609 37788665 38638642



    ------------=_1532115862-1941-1365
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1532115862-1941-1365--

    --- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)