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ACUS11 KWNS 201944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201943 COR
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-202045-
Mesoscale Discussion 1103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018
Areas affected...Far Southeast IN...Far Southwest
OH...Central/Eastern KY
Concerning...Tornado Watch 289...
Valid 201943Z - 202045Z
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT WATCH TYPE.
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 289 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards continues across Tornado
Watch 289. Convective trends will be monitored for a potential
downstream watch across portions of eastern KY.
DISCUSSION...Initial clustered supercells mode appears to have
transitioned to more of a amalgamated convective line along the
southwestern border of OH and vicinity. Initial motion of the line southeastward at about 30-35 kt. Downstream airmass has been
modified by previous storm outflow and the resulting cooler
continues have limited instability. As a result, storm persistence
into this airmass appears unlikely and the general expectation is
for the primary propagation to favor the southwestern portion of the
line into more of central KY. Remnant outflow boundary may also act
a preferred conduit for storm propagation. Primary severe threat
with this line is damaging wind gusts, although hail and a brief
tornado are also possible.
Farther south (across central KY), clustered storm mode continues
with several supercells ongoing. Merger with convective line farther
north appear probable and may already be underway. Hail, damaging
wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes remain possible with this
activity as well.
Convective trends will be monitored for a potential downstream watch
across portions of eastern KY.
..Mosier.. 07/20/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
LAT...LON 38638642 39618533 39818426 39518362 38448309 36988354
36748484 37108609 37788665 38638642
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