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ACUS11 KWNS 201719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201719
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-201815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...Southeast/Southern IN...Central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 201719Z - 201815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage anticipated. All severe
hazards are possible and a watch will likely be needed across
portions of the region.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed across southeast IN
(about 40 mi south-southeast of IND) over the past hour. This
cluster appears to be within the diffuse warm frontal zone extending
across the region. Strong instability is present in the vicinity of
the storms, extending southwestward into western KY. However, given
the downstream cloudiness and ongoing precipitation, the instability
drops off quickly with MLCAPE below 500 J/kg by central OH. Ongoing
storms across OH suggest this warm front will remain relatively in
place for at least the next several hours. This will limit the
northeastern extent of the threat with storms likely weakening once
the move into central OH. Even so, airmass immediately surrounding
the cluster is supportive of strong updrafts and at least modest
storm organization. Primary severe threat with this activity is
large hail although some enhancement of the low-level vertical
vorticity is possible within this frontal zone, contributing to a
non-zero tornado risk.

Farther south/southwest (across southern IN and central KY), airmass
head continues to destabilize, evidenced but agitated cloud streaks
in the visible satellite imagery. Recent mesoanalysis also suggests
convective inhibition has eroded. In this area, surface-based storm
development may begin within the next hour or so as large-scale
forcing for ascent increases and surface confluence persists. All
severe hazards are possible here, including the potential for
tornadoes, particularly near the warm front extending across the
region. A watch will likely be needed to cover the anticipated
severe threat.

..Mosier/Hart.. 07/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON 37628470 36778538 36848656 37628682 38498661 39458595
39738525 39758471 39558423 38928416 37938455 37628470



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