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ACUS11 KWNS 201425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201425
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-201600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Nebraska into northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 201425Z - 201600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may further develop over central/southern
Nebraska this morning, and some potential exists for an increase in
the threat of large hail and damaging winds. While this is highly
uncertain and watch issuance seems unlikely, trends are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection (rooted above the surface) has developed
from a field of ACCAS over central Nebraska this morning. Water
vapor and 500mb analysis suggest this development is from subtle
forcing for ascent embedded within northwesterly flow. Sustenance of
ongoing cells, as well as further development, remains highly
uncertain due to the subtle nature of ascent and presence of
considerable dry air noted around 700-850mb in the 12Z LBF sounding.
Related to this dry air, however, is the presence of a stout EML and
ample mid-level buoyancy for any sustained updrafts. Additionally,
seasonably strong 500-300mb northwesterlies are yielding effective
shear favorable for rotating updrafts and large hail growth.
Therefore, if a few deep/organized updrafts can evolve, a more
considerable severe threat may materialize. These storms would be
capable of large hail and damaging winds. Still, due to the
aforementioned uncertainty, watch issuance appears unlikely/highly
uncertain.

..Picca/Hart.. 07/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 42520045 41399923 40169830 39749824 39629937 39910072
40270149 40730203 42100264 42370260 42820223 42880171
42520045



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