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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0284

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 23, 2018 00:11:55
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 230011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230011
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0284
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0711 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

    Areas affected...portions of the FL panhandle...extreme southeast
    AL...extreme southwest GA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...

    Valid 230011Z - 230115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest short-term tornado risk will likely focus
    near the maritime/warm front in the AL-GA-FL tri-state region.

    DISCUSSION...Latest subjective surface analysis places a warm front
    from Apalachee Bay northwest near Tallahassee and into southeast AL.
    A very moist airmass with weak buoyancy (590 J/kg MLCAPE per the
    evening TLH RAOB) characterizes this area. Surface dewpoints are in
    the upper 60s-70 degrees F range along and south of the boundary and
    in the middle 60s east and northeast of the boundary. As stronger
    updrafts move northeast within the warm conveyer convective plume
    and interact within the warm frontal zone, the backed low-level flow
    and augmented hodographs will support a greater threat for low-level mesocyclones and the possibility for a couple of weak/short-track
    supercell tornadoes. The main concern/uncertainty at this time is
    the cessation of the tornado risk and the watch expiration time.
    Either a local watch extension-in-time or a watch replacement may
    need to be considered in the next 60-90 minutes since the watch
    expires at 9PM CDT/10PM EDT.

    ..Smith.. 04/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30368468 30998532 31458504 31418455 30648417 30368468



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 08, 2019 02:40:05
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1554691209-1972-6200
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080239
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-080445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0284
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0939 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

    Areas affected...Southern Mississippi into southwest Alabama

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 44...

    Valid 080239Z - 080445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 44
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A dying line of storms will progress east across
    Mississippi and perhaps into southwest Alabama this evening. While a
    few strong wind gusts are possible, a watch is not required.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS continues to weaken this evening, with
    a decrease in trailing STRATIFORM precipitation and a thinning of
    the leading-edge convection.

    00Z soundings into central MS and AL indicate that diurnal cooling
    of the boundary layer will likely lead to a decrease in storm
    coverage, both ahead of the line and within, as a capping inversion
    exists around 700 mb. Instability levels are much weaker into the FL
    Panhandle region, with nearly zero MLCAPE noted on the TLH sounding.
    Thus, trends of the last hour are expected to persist.

    ..Jewell.. 04/08/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 29558909 30278948 30978982 31729015 32389039 32929032
    33148996 33238949 33048896 32798842 32228789 31058758
    30378747 30198758 30138815 30168848 30138870 29948873
    29728887 29558909



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