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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1077

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 18, 2018 21:59:42
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 182159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182159
    NEZ000-SDZ000-182330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1077
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0459 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

    Areas affected...portions of northern into central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 182159Z - 182330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat may be increasing across parts of northern
    into central NE. Convective trends are being monitored closely and a
    watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase across parts of north
    central NE into central SD late this afternoon. Visible satellite
    shows a large cumulus field across central NE with dewpoints in the
    mid 60s to near 70 F, resulting in moderate instability. Surface
    analysis indicates a surface trough/pre-frontal confluence zone from
    near Oglala-Lakota County SD south-southeast toward south-central
    NE. An intense cell in Pennington County tracking south-southeast
    appears to be tracking into this confluence zone. While midlevel
    lapse rates are lackluster, effective shear increases with
    southeastward extent to around 30-40kt, with 0-3km shear around
    25-30 kt noted on the LNX VWP. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest
    that the Pennington County cell will continue southeastward and some
    upscale growth is possible. As such, a severe thunderstorm watch may
    be needed to the south of Tornado Watch 280. Convective trends will
    be monitored closely over the next hour or so.

    ..Leitman/Goss.. 07/18/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42980063 41839852 41569811 41199800 40849811 40549858
    40439927 40569976 41120087 41390126 42090205 42820252
    43000228 42980063



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