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ACUS11 KWNS 222059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222058
ALZ000-MSZ000-222330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Areas affected...West-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222058Z - 222330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat and a few strong wind gusts will
be possible across parts of west-central Alabama late this
afternoon. The threat is expected to remain localized and weather
watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a deepening 1008 mb
low across eastern Mississippi. Winds are backed at the surface to
the east of the surface low across most of Alabama. A moist airmass
extends northward into central Alabama where surface dewpoints are
in the mid to upper 60s F. Although little surface heating has taken
place in central Alabama, the RAP suggests that weak instability is
present. This combined with strong large-scale ascent associated
with a shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery, will support surface-based thunderstorm development over the next couple of
hours. The WSR-88D VWP at Birmingham shows a looped hodograph with
0-6 km shear at 55 kt and 0-1 km shear near 40 kt. This should be
sufficient for storm rotation within the stronger discrete cells. As
a result, a marginal tornado threat will be possible late this
afternoon. A few strong wind gusts may also occur.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 33978773 33918712 33268644 32458645 31948672 31678738
31828799 32208829 32838843 33398823 33848802 33818785
33978773



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ACUS11 KWNS 072344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072344
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-080145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...eastern Louisiana into central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 43...

Valid 072344Z - 080145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 43
continues.

SUMMARY...Numerous storms will continues eastward across the
remainder of Louisiana and into western Mississippi, with all modes
of marginal severe possible. The probability of additional watches
appears low at this time.

DISCUSSION...An extensive batch of rain and storms currently arcs
southeastward from the ArkLaTex into southeast LA, supported by a
slow-moving shortwave trough. Ahead of this line, a moist and
unstable air mass remains with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, except
north of a secondary outflow over north central MS where it drops
off quickly.

Shear profiles remain rather marginal for any organized severe
threat, but sufficient to maintain existing convection as outflow
pushes east. Additional cellular activity is possible anywhere ahead
of the line, and perhaps favoring the area immediately ahead of it.
Here, a slight increase in backed surface winds, in combination with
around 30 kt southerly 850 mb flow, may support weak low-level
rotation. Otherwise, the main threat will be marginal wind gusts,
mainly below severe levels, and marginal hail with cells ahead of
the line.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30129104 30299118 30629123 31029139 31529149 32229169
32779192 33179192 33289159 33339119 33229055 32778999
32468972 31658987 31009001 30569024 30199051 30019086
30129104



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