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ACUS11 KWNS 182056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182056
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182056Z - 182300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few isolated cases of severe wind gusts and hail are
possible for the next hour or two. A WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A subtle, weak mid-level wave associated with an MCV is
moving over an environment with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Brief
instances of a few convective downbursts is the most likely hazard
with this activity. Isolated hail is also possible with 25-30 kts of
effective bulk shear, however weak mid-level lapse rates should
limit hail potential. As storms move slowly to the southeast,
buoyancy drops off dramatically as earlier convective activity and
associated cloud debris has limited insolation. A WW is unlikely.

..Wendt.. 07/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 37459539 37859466 37869390 37649297 37439291 37209307
37109388 36989457 36929497 36949534 37199561 37459539



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