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ACUS11 KWNS 181945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181944
AZZ000-182115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 181944Z - 182115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for a
few strong/damaging gusts this afternoon. However, watch issuance is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Strong convection has formed along the higher terrain
of northern Arizona early this afternoon. The 18Z FGZ sounding
sampled steep low-level lapse rates beneath modest MLCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg and easterly mid-level flow around 20-25 kt. In turn,
as convection further organizes along higher terrain this afternoon,
a few stronger downdrafts (aided by evaporative cooling) will be
possible in the most robust cores. Nonetheless, the departure of
stronger mid-level forcing to the west should keep most convection
rooted to higher terrain, precluding a greater coverage at lower
elevations (where boundary layer profiles are deeper). As such,
watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Picca/Guyer.. 07/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...

LAT...LON 36561217 36311187 35931139 34941067 34231039 33931057
34081226 34441381 34911440 35431431 36091406 36461353
36561217



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