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ACUS11 KWNS 181840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181839
SDZ000-NEZ000-182045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Central/Southeastern South
Dakota...North-Central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 181839Z - 182045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or
two is increasing. A WW is likely by 19-20Z.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus clouds are becoming increasingly agitated along
and near a slowly northeastward advancing warm front located from
northwest South Dakota to southeast South Dakota. A surface
confluence zone was also apparent in visible satellite imagery from
near Gregory County South Dakota southward into central Nebraska. A
strong shortwave trough, especially for mid-July, will continue to
progress southeastward any foster development of scattered severe
storms across the area. Currently, the preferred area for
development will be along the warm front where warm sector
temperatures have risen to the low- to mid-80s. Development is less
certain along the confluence axis where heating has been limited by
cloud cover. With 30-45 kts of effective bulk shear and at least
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, storms will be able to organize and produce
severe wind gusts and large hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out, particularly with initial cells near the warm front where
low-level hodograph turning will be maximized. With time, storms
should grow upscale into an MCS where the threat will shift to
primarily severe wind gusts. A WW is likely by 19Z.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 44960235 45050107 44619985 43879815 43689785 43099793
42529835 42159914 42259996 42890123 43560196 44070238
44510257 44960235



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