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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1073

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 18, 2018 06:58:05
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180658
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180657
    NEZ000-180900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1073
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0157 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

    Areas affected...NE Panhandle...Northwestern/Western NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 180657Z - 180900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few isolated severe gusts are possible across portions
    of western NE during the next several hours. Anticipated isolated
    nature of the threat is expected to preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Observation site at Alliance, NE (KAIA) recently
    reported a 62 kt gust as the small convective line extending
    throughout the northern half of the NE Panhandle moved through.
    Airmass downstream is hostile to surface-based convection but steep
    mid-level lapse rates should allow for storm persistence, although
    increasingly elevated in character. Development will likely be
    favored along the western/southwestern extent of the line, largely a
    result of greater instability across western NE than
    central/north-central NE. Despite the increasingly elevated nature
    of the convective line, a few isolated severe gusts at surface are
    still possible, owing primarily to the maturity/organization of the
    line and strength of the cold pool.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/18/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42480298 42770204 42490118 42170075 41930060 41650062
    41210073 41040121 41080194 41320262 41710304 42480298



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