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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1072

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 18, 2018 04:33:37
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180433
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180432
    OKZ000-KSZ000-180630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1072
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1132 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

    Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 180432Z - 180630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe gusts may continue with storms overspreading northern Oklahoma through the 2-3 AM time frame. Due
    to the somewhat marginal/localized nature of the severe threat, a
    watch is not currently anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A small but sustained vigorous convective cluster
    continues to migrate eastward to the north of a remnant surface
    boundary associated with strong differential daytime heating. Near
    surface moisture content to the north of this boundary is seasonably
    high with dew points in the lower/mid 70s, and this continues to
    support sizable mixed layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Despite
    increasing mid-level inhibition associated with the loss of daytime
    heating, fairly strong shear in the lowest 3 km AGL (30-40 kt
    evident on VWP from Vance AFB) likely is maintaining strong
    low-level lift along the convectively generated cold pool. Based on
    the latest surface and objective analyses, it appears possible that
    the environment may remain supportive of the continuation of this
    activity through 07-08Z, into areas as far east as Tulsa. This
    probably will also continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to
    severe gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 07/18/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 37059764 36789623 35879556 35269630 35739703 35999822
    36589779 37059764



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