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ACUS11 KWNS 180405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180404
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-180530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern South Dakota...northwestern
Nebraska and southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

Valid 180404Z - 180530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
continues.

SUMMARY...Some risk for strong to severe wind gusts may continue
beyond 11 PM MDT, but the severe weather potential, in general,
appears to be diminishing. Another severe weather watch does not
seem necessary.

DISCUSSION...The convective system which evolved to the southeast of
the Big Horns is undergoing considerable general weakening. As this
continues the associated vigorous surface cold pool, which has
recently been accompanied by strong to severe surface gusts across
the Black Hills vicinity, should also weaken with diminishing
potential for strong gusts.

Isolated vigorous convection is still evident along/above the
southern flank of the outflow, now to the south of the Black Hills,
with additional more modest convective development just upstream,
southward into the Wyoming/Nebraska border vicinity. This latter
development may have been aided by forcing for ascent in the exit
region of a 40 kt mid-level speed maximum which is forecast to
propagate east southeastward across the Nebraska panhandle through
06-09Z.

It is possible that moderate deep layer shear associated with the
mid-level speed maximum may support at least some continuing risk
for strong surface gusts across portions of western Nebraska (mainly
to the north of Scottsbluff and Alliance) and adjacent southern
South Dakota for another hour or two. However, this threat appears
to be becoming more localized in nature, and likely to diminish
further in the presence of a more stable/stabilizing low-level
environment to the east.

..Kerr.. 07/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 43170269 43600186 43090080 42270193 41820260 41740390
42270411 42680371 42830301 43170269



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