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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1070

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 18, 2018 01:32:37
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180132
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180132
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-180330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1070
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0832 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...west/southwest Kansas...far
    northwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 180132Z - 180330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe possible with the more intense storms.
    Damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail would be the main
    threats. A new WW issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A recent uptick in convective intensity has been noted
    across southeast Colorado into western/southwestern Kansas and far
    northwestern Oklahoma within the last hour or so. While 35 kts (on
    average) of effective bulk shear is present across the discussion
    area, the lack of stronger upper-level support and waning
    instability suggest that the recent intensification of convection
    and associated severe risk may begin waning within a few hours. In
    the meantime, water loaded downdrafts with the stronger cores may
    promote isolated, marginally severe wind gusts. A few hailstones
    between 1-2 inches also cannot be ruled out in the near term.

    Given the sparse and isolated nature of the severe threat, the
    issuance of a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected. Local
    extensions of WW 0279 might occur in the far northern portions of
    the discussion area to account for longer lived storms moving out of
    the watch.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/18/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37610203 37840282 38140357 38450424 39150444 39260431
    39420402 39510371 39530329 39520263 39520216 39500184
    39010103 38119972 37349927 36709921 36569928 36289946
    36249981 36570054 36970118 37610203



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