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ACUS11 KWNS 172349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172349
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming...far northwest
Nebraska...Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

Valid 172349Z - 180145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat continues, with a slow weakening
trend noted. Marginally severe hail/wind remain the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Earlier discrete storms along the Wyoming/Montana
border have begun to grow upscale into a more loosely organized
convective complex. These storms are expected to progress slowly eastward/southeastward over the next few hours, aided by modest
larger scale lift associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave
trough and left-exit region of a weak upper-level jet streak.

An outflow boundary is oriented roughly along a line from CUT to
ECS, with more stable air located just to the east of the boundary.
Storms that may traverse the boundary have the best chance at
ingesting more buoyant surface based parcels and maintaining their
intensity, perhaps producing marginally severe hail/wind. As
nocturnal cooling sets in, the boundary layer will stabilize and any
remaining storms are expected to decrease in intensity, given that
effective bulk shear remains non-supportive of updraft organization.

Elsewhere across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0279, the trend has been
for storms to weaken, and this trend will likely continue for the
remainder of the evening.

..Squitieri.. 07/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 42490602 43350601 44790595 45000584 45160559 45250499
45160396 45090355 44730274 44270230 43840216 43640211
42690205 42130209 41220205 40160209 39640212 39550251
39590339 39650360 40010383 40120456 40290484 40810480
41080497 42450525 42550553 42550589 42490602



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