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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1066

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 17, 2018 17:20:35
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171720
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171720
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-171915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1066
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

    Areas affected...Far southeastern Kansas...southwest
    Missouri...northeast Oklahoma...far northwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 171720Z - 171915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms in southeast Kansas and
    northeast Oklahoma will be capable of isolated strong/severe wind
    gusts this afternoon. Overall threat coverage will likely remain
    low. No WW is anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A line of strong/severe storms from Neosho County, KS
    southward into Craig County, OK will continue to push eastward into
    a modestly unstable environment with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Latest
    KSGF VAD profile shows 25-30 kts of 0-6 km shear and, with the
    increasing influence of an MCV to the west, the downstream
    environment should remain marginally supportive of storm
    organization. While further surface heating may somewhat hindered by
    anvil cirrus overspreading much of the area, RAP forecast soundings
    suggest that this line of storms should be sustained for a least a
    few more hours with isolated convective downbursts possible. Given
    the likelihood of the threat remaining isolated in nature, no WW is
    anticipated at this time.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37899557 37919468 37589355 37229316 36619337 36249343
    36089358 36019413 36139477 36389512 36589565 37369588
    37899557



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