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ACUS11 KWNS 171549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171549
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-171745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern New England and the
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171549Z - 171745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in damaging wind potential is expected
through this afternoon. Thunderstorm trends are being monitored for
potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak shortwave trough advancing over the
Appalachians, convection continues to deepen from eastern
Pennsylvania to the Hudson Valley late this morning. Downstream of
this activity, surface temperatures are rising into the mid/upper
80s, while dew points hold in the lower/mid 70s. Adjusting the 12Z
ALB/OKX soundings for these observations suggests around 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE is present, despite poor mid-level lapse rates.
Storms should continue to form within a weakly confluent, uncapped
environment along/ahead of a pre-frontal trough, and storms mergers
will likely favor localized upscale growth/bowing. In conjunction
with steepening 0-1 km lapse rates and approximately 20-30 kt of
westerly mid-level flow, this convective evolution may support
occasional strong/damaging gusts into this afternoon. If
thunderstorm coverage/organization warrants, a watch may be needed
by early/mid afternoon.

..Picca/Guyer.. 07/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 40267588 40947568 41257544 41557488 41667317 41687241
41657228 41537231 40927294 40047417 39617495 39827560
40267588



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